Brazil Votes Sunday in a Near-Tie Between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro

Brazilians vote on Sunday in a presidential runoff that polls show is too close to call, pitting President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, the leftist veteran who has dominated the country’s politics for a generation, against Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, the eldest son of the jailed former president Jair Bolsonaro.

Flávio Bolsonaro finished first in the opening round earlier this month, by about 2 percentage points, according to Al Jazeera. His Liberal Party was also on track to become the largest force in the Chamber of Deputies, the lower house of Congress, which made him the favorite in the eyes of many analysts. In the three weeks since, polls have shown the race tightening to a statistical tie, with Bolsonaro slightly ahead in many surveys.

Lula’s campaign is concentrating on voters who stayed home or cast blank or null ballots the first time, after abstention reached about 21 percent, the highest for a first round since 1998, according to The Associated Press. Analysts say abstention tends to hurt Lula more, because it is higher among lower-income, less-educated and older voters, groups that lean his way.

Much of the contest runs through Minas Gerais, the second-largest electorate after São Paulo and a longtime bellwether: the state has backed the national winner in the deciding round of every presidential election since 1989, according to The Rio Times. Lula trailed there by almost 5 points in the first round, and both candidates scheduled final rallies in its capital, Belo Horizonte, The Guardian reported.

The shadow of the elder Bolsonaro hangs over the race. Jair Bolsonaro lost narrowly to Lula in 2022 and is under house arrest serving a 27-year sentence for plotting to overturn that result. His son has said he will pardon him if elected. Lula, who is seeking a fourth, nonconsecutive term and says this will be his last campaign, was himself jailed on corruption charges in the 2010s before his convictions were annulled on procedural grounds.

The candidates offer sharply different programs. Flávio Bolsonaro, a close ally of President Trump, has promised to shrink the Brazilian state to spur growth and to crack down hard on organized crime, a message that resonates with the many Brazilians who rank public safety as a top concern. Lula has attacked those economic plans by pointing to the austerity program of Argentina’s president, Javier Milei, and his supporters cast the vote as a chance to keep the far right from returning to power.

A Bolsonaro victory would extend his family’s grip on the Brazilian right and reinforce a broader rightward shift across Latin America, NPR noted. A Lula comeback would be a rare defeat for that trend.

The campaign’s final days have also featured a fight over social media. Lula’s campaign has accused Meta of unfairly limiting the reach of his content, which the company denies; Meta acknowledged technical problems with election-related posts but said it does not suppress content to harm either side. Lula’s team has meanwhile overhauled its online strategy, and his digital reach has for the first time overtaken his rival’s, The Guardian reported.

With a survey this week finding about one in 10 voters still open to changing their minds, turnout and small shifts could decide the outcome.